Thousands of protesters gathered in front of the municipal building in Istanbul on December 14 after a court sentenced the city’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, to two years, seven months and 15 days in prison for having insulted officials of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council.
The Istanbul court also banned the Mayor, who belongs to the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), from participating in any political activity — including contesting elections or voting. Mr. Imamoglu, however, won’t actually spend time in jail as the sentence falls below the minimum threshold (generally taken to be four years) for physical incarceration.
He has appealed against the conviction, and if the ruling again proves unfavourable to him, he can appeal to the Supreme Court. While the case winds its way through the Turkish judiciary, he will continue in office as Istanbul Mayor. The sentencing — especially the part that imposes a political ban on Mr. Imamoglu — has caused outrage among Turkey’s Opposition parties, which have accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of having fabricated the whole case with the aim of eliminating the one politician who has the potential to defeat him in the elections coming up in June 2023. They have also accused Mr. Erdogan of leaning on the judiciary to convict Mr. Imamoglu.
The judgment has elicited unfavourable reactions in international circles as well. The U.S. State Department has said it’s “deeply troubled and disappointed” by the development, Germany has termed it “a heavy blow to democracy”, France has said Turkey should “reverse its slide away from the rule of law, democracy and respect for fundamental rights”, while the EU has described it as a “major setback for democracy in Turkey”.
Mr. Imamoglu, who hails from a business family, used to run a small restaurant before joining the CHP in 2008. His first political success came in 2014 when he became the Mayor of Beylikduzu, a district in the European side of Istanbul. He shot to international limelight when, as the Opposition candidate, he won the mayoral race for Istanbul in March 2019, defeating the candidate from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) by 13,729 votes. The post of Istanbul Mayor is one of the most prestigious and influential electoral posts in Turkey. The city, with a population of 16 million (nearly one-fifth of the total population of 85 million) and an annual budget of $4 billion, has been the political home to the country’s most powerful politicians, including Mr. Erdogan himself. Mr. Imamoglu’s victory — which handed over the city to the Opposition for the first time in decades — was a huge setback for the President. Mr. Imamoglu served as Mayor for just 17 days before the election results were annulled. Fresh elections were held in June 2019. But this time, Mr. Imamoglu won by a much bigger margin of around 8,00,000 votes — leaving Mr. Erdogan with no option but to concede defeat.
Trading barbs
During his tenure, Mr. Erdogan has been busy neutralising political opponents, often by displacing them from key positions. In 2019, he removed several Mayors from the Kurdish minority from their posts, on charges that they had links with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Opposition leaders, including Mr. Imamoglu, criticised the removal of elected Mayors as a subversion of democracy. Mr. Erdogan’s Interior Minister responded by calling Mr. Imamoglu an “idiot”. Mr. Imamoglu replied that it was those who had overturned the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election who were the “idiots”, prompting the Supreme Electoral Council to file a case against him for “insulting” them. It was this case which has now resulted in a political ban.
The June 2023 elections are expected to be a difficult test for Mr. Erdogan and his ruling AKP. Anti-incumbency apart the country is in economic turmoil, with the Turkish lira losing 44% of its value in 2021 alone and inflation at 85%. At the same time, there is finally some opposition unity, with six parties, including the CHP, joining hands to take on Mr. Erdogan.
Mr. Imamoglu, whose ratings have consistently topped Mr. Erdogan’s, is the only politician to have gotten the better of him in high-stakes electoral battles, not once but twice. He was, therefore, widely tipped to lead the Opposition’s challenge as their joint Presidential candidate. But the political ban, if upheld in the appeals process, would weaken the Opposition’s ability to mount a credible challenge.