New Delhi:
In the wake of the unprecedented drone and missile attack launched by Iran against Israel, the region finds itself teetering on the edge of a potentially devastating conflict. With sirens blaring and explosions resonating over Jerusalem, the long-standing covert war between Iran and Israel has prompted fears of further escalation and instability.
To shed light on the intricate dynamics at play, NDTV spoke with Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics at Lancaster University and author of multiple books on the Middle East, to understand the status quo and what the future might hold for the region.
Regional Escalation
Iran had previously issued threats of retaliation against Israel following an April 1 airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, where seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, including two generals, were killed.
Professor Mabon highlighted the repercussions of Israel’s targeted strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The fallout from this attack has significantly destabilised the region, creating a precarious environment fraught with uncertainty.
“The Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus has had a dramatic impact on regional politics in making the region a more precarious, more unstable environment. The direct attack from Israel resulted in the killing of senior members of the IRGC and provoked a powerful condemnation from senior Iranian figures including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” Professor Mabon told NDTV.
An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel April 14
Photo Credit: Reuters
“This has caused serious concern among many in Israel, the United States and beyond about Iranian retaliation against Israel. But this could take a number of different forms. Iran feels it is under pressure to respond by virtue of its long-standing support of the Palestinian cause and by virtue of its longstanding opposition to the state of Israel,” he added.
The Iranian military declared that its drone and missile assault on Israel had accomplished all intended goals.
“As a result of being the de facto leader of the ‘Axis Of Resistance’, Iran finds itself in somewhat of a bind here. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, it has been very careful not to play into escalation with Israel but at the same time, it is in some ways forced into some type of retaliation,” Professor Mabon said.
Possible Israeli Response
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today said that his country has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran for years and will “harm” anyone who harms them.
“Israel has said that if there is a direct strike from Iranian territory then it will respond in kind. That is interesting wording in the sense that it speaks of a direct Iranian attack,” said Professor Mabon.
United States President Joe Biden, Israel’s strongest ally, has pledged “ironclad” support for Israel. Historically, Israel’s firm stance on assaults on its territories signals that any direct attack from Iranian territory will be met with swift reprisal. Despite the preference for de-escalation, the spectre of conflict looms large, particularly as Israel contemplates its next move.
Benjamin Netanyahu and his top leaders at the Kirya in Tel Aviv.
Photo Credit: @IsraeliPM
“No one wants an escalation right now but the decision from the war cabinet in Israel is going to be absolutely essential in what happens next. Whether Netanyahu decides that the ability to deter, stemming from the ability to close down the colossal attack granted at a huge economic cost of an estimated billion dollars, is enough to say to Israel’s rivals, ‘Look we will stop you, whatever the cost’.
In a region fraught with volatility, the slightest misstep could precipitate a catastrophic escalation with far-reaching consequences
“What will Israel do next? Will the Iranian strikes provoke another response? The Iranians have been very keen to say this has nothing to do with the US,” he said.
Pressure On Netanyahu
Earlier this year, thousands of Israelis gathered in Jerusalem, demanding increased actions to liberate the captives detained in Gaza and the removal of Netanyahu.
Approximately 250 hostages were taken by Hamas militants during the October 7 assaults on Israel that instigated the conflict. Israel estimates that 130 individuals, including 33 presumed dead, are still in captivity in Gaza.
A demonstrator holds a sign depicting a mashup of the faces of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and late Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar during an anti-government demonstration in Tel Aviv on April 13
Photo Credit: AFP
“Since October 7, the Netanyahu leadership and his coalition have doubled down on its hardline stance with regards to dialogue with Palestine leaders. Unless the hostages are released, Netanyahu will not engage with the Palestinian leadership to discuss the future of the state of Palestine. The dialogue at present is about releasing the hostages in pursuit of a ceasefire,” Professor Mabon said.
“The other thing to note here is that Netanyahu’s political future is on the line. In case he is removed from power, which is becoming increasingly likely in light of the widespread protests against his rule and his leadership that he faces. So he is increasingly wanting to double down on its stance because he sees it as a way to stay in power,” he added.
Prospects Of Regional Peace
Against this backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, prospects for peace talks between Israel and Hamas appear increasingly bleak.
Israel’s spy agency Mosaid today that the Palestinian militant group Hamas had rejected the latest proposal by international mediators for a truce in the war in Gaza.
Egypt, Qatar, and the US have previously acted as intermediaries in negotiations, yet a viable agreement has proven elusive. The mediators aimed to secure a ceasefire prior to the commencement of Ramadan, but progress halted.
“Public calls for a ceasefire have increased but unless the US openly calls for a ceasefire and condemns the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) actions in Gaza, the Israelis are able to ignore, circumvent or avoid this “noise” as it sees it,” Professor Mabon said.
Post-Conflict Reconstruction
In Gaza, which has seen continual bombardment by Israeli forces since the October 7 attacks, post-conflict reconstruction of the region stands as a monumental task, fraught with multifaceted challenges and complexities.
“Rehabilitation and rebuilding in terms of a conflict is an incredibly challenging task. Post-conflict reconstruction is hugely expensive and hugely challenging. People are dealing with devastation, loss of livelihood, families, and injuries both mental and physical, and putting all that together you get an incredibly tense environment,” Professor Mabon said.
A general view of destroyed buildings, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas, in Khan Younis, Gaza April 11, 2024
Photo Credit: Reuters
“Then there is the added economic burden – who will be paying for the reconstruction because right now as there is no money in Gaza or Palestine. The Palestinian economy has been decimated by what has been happening, the Gazan economy in particular has been destroyed. So there are numerous challenges in Gaza in terms of reconstruction,” he added.
Since the Israelis launched their attack on Gaza, an estimated 33,686 people have been killed in the besieged Palestinian enclave.