What message do the recent missile tests in North Korea send to the larger international order?
The story so far: North Korea, on January 30 test fired their IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) Hwasong-12. This can be seen as a multipronged strategy to not only signal its adversary far west and work as an effective way to refine their weapon systems but also serve as a propaganda tool for its people who are currently going through a severe food crisis. The Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s state news agency, reported that the test “confirmed the accuracy, security and operational effectiveness of the “Hwasong-12”-type weapon system under production”.
What has been South Korea’s response?
Its immediate neighbour, South Korea, has decried the tests with its president, Moon Jae-in, calling it a “challenge toward the international community’s efforts to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula, stabilise peace and find a diplomatic solution”. It has long followed the Sunshine Policy to improve relations with its northern neighbour.
Under this policy, South Korea seeks to work towards improving relations with North Korea through actions that signal its commitment to non-interference in North Korean matters and improving economic cooperation with them. It has also continued to work on the development of its ballistic missile programme.
Within a few months of coming to power, the American president, Joe Biden, in the face of North Korea’s increased aggressiveness, worked with Moon Jae-in to scrap South Korea’s missile guidelines which limited the types of missiles (in terms of their range) South Korea could work on (first introduced in 1979). This also served as a strategic tactic in the region for the Americans to allow South Korean missiles to potentially reach China. As of now, South Korea’s biggest weapons in its arsenal are the Hyunmoo series of missiles and the Haeseong missile. As Moon Jae-in’s term comes to a close, he is looking to continue to make efforts for peace talks.
What is the domestic situation in North Korea?
Recent evidence coming out of North Korea tells us that Kim isn’t even remotely close to considering clamping down on testing; if anything, he wants more. It is also important to note here that this recent test was a confirmational one. With this, he just further proved North Korea’s ability to hit the U.S.’s island territory of Guam. The continued American sanctions are unlikely to make an impact of the kind the U.S. is hoping for as China would be more than happy to help its ally.
One sign of hope for the West to come out of North Korea, even if a bleak one at that, is Kim Jong-un’s recent push for agricultural growth and economic development. He is looking to work towards increasing the agricultural output, and with his recent visit to a new agricultural facility, also trying to send a message on the domestic front in order to safeguard his political position. The message he is sending out to this people is simple—I see the challenges we are facing, and I am actively working to resolve them.
The COVID-19 pandemic, multiple natural disasters hitting North Korea, and the sanctions by the U.S. and the western community at large have ravaged North Korea’s economy. It would be in the interest of the U.S. to not let this opportunity pass and offer something concrete to North Korea to help improve their situation as North Korea would seek to further strengthen ties with China.
Why is North Korea adamant on pumping huge resources into its weapon programme even as it suffers on the economic front?
Kim doesn’t want to give up power and considering the U.S.’s ambitions for the Korean peninsula, from his perspective, strengthening North Korea with a robust ballistic missile and a nuclear weapons programme is the only way to keep more conventionally powerful forces at bay.
Experts worry about North Korea reneging on its self-imposed moratorium to not test Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons. Kim had first hinted about not being bound to this moratorium back in 2019. It would be an incredibly unwise reading of the situation to imagine North Korea giving up its nuclear capabilities. A more realistic goal ought to be to get it to dial down on the tests. In addition to serving as a bargaining tool to bring North Korea to the negotiating table, its economic situation should also be seen as a potential recipe for disaster as weapons and weapons technology can find their way out to other state and non-state actors. It has already long been suspected of being involved with Syria, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and reportedly, much recently in an indirect manner, with Taiwan. With the recent tests, he has only shown his resolve to continue such acts of belligerence.
How advanced is the country’s weapons programme?
Its ballistic missile programme situation seems more robust than ever, only exacerbated by the ‘confirmatory’ tests it seems so adamant on doing. Their arsenal boasts of short range, medium range, intermediate range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), in addition to a wide array of cruise missiles and potentially at least two submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
Additionally, at the very least, they also possess the capability to weaponise chemical and biological agents. Its actual possession of chemical and biological weapons is debated. It has also conducted 6 nuclear tests since 2006 with the last one being in 2017 (reportedly a hydrogen bomb). It continues to produce enriched Uranium and weapons-grade Plutonium. It went on a self-administered moratorium in 2018 on the testing of long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons which it later clarified (multiple times) to not being bound to. It is reported to possess enough fissile material for at least 45 nuclear weapons.
What next?
Maybe, merely looking at the strategic external perspective won’t tell us the whole story. Perhaps the domestic front can further help us in understanding North Korea’s actions. 2022 is the year that will see the 80th birth anniversary of Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, and the 110th birth anniversary of the country’s founder, Kim Il-sung. With such ‘momentous’ occasions, North Korea may be looking to portray a show of power to its people. As mentioned before, this act serves as a multipronged strategy.
The geopolitical rationale of the missile test is simple—it gives Kim Jong-un leverage. Kim has seen the fate of the likes of Ukraine, and South Africa. He has seen Libya’s fate. He understands the kind of leverage ballistic missiles and nuclear capabilities give him. What remains to be seen is exactly how far out can he play this act of brinksmanship.
North Korea, like any other state, is looking to safeguard its interests and is doing it in the best way it knows. This is neither a strategic anomaly nor does it run counter to its philosophy ofjuche(self-reliance) and songun (military-first). Whether or not it runs counter to certain nations’ interests and how it impacts the larger weapons proliferation processes at play is an entirely different area of discussion. It says more about the hegemonic interests of larger powers which lead to the emergence of conflicts that continue to brew for years and potentially threaten the stability of the international order than it says about North Korea’s way of responding.
Rishabh Kachroo is a Ph.D scholar at the department of International Relations and Governance Studies at Shiv Nadar University.